Portfolio Update #9: Where Citrini Is Wrong, My Performance, Why Saas Won't Die
Don't fall for doomsday porn
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“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” - Sir John Templeton (compounded 15% for 40 years)
Greetings from sunny Cape Town. The sun is shining over the city, but not over technology companies right now.
Since the end of January, the Nasdaq has declined 4.25%. The "AI scare trade" was amplified by a viral Substack post from global macro research firm Citrini Research called “THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS”. My portfolio was hit as well, with a 26% drawdown since the end of January, driven mainly by Upstart falling 45% since the start of 2026 despite strong earnings. IREN also declined, while Solaria Energia was one of the very few companies to increase in value since the start of the year. However, since the end of 2021, my portfolios are still outperforming all major indices.
The TLDR of Citrini’s viral piece is as follows:
